Publications

The term \u201cMediterranean tropical-like cyclone\u201d or \u201cmedicane\u201d has been used in different ways by different authors. Identification of medicanes has been based on features observed from satellite imagery or on diagnostics applied to numerical weather prediction model outputs. In the absence of an official definition, medicanes are generally considered to be cyclones over the Mediterranean sharing physical processes with tropical cyclones. Nevertheless, recent studies on the dynamics of several systems widely recognized as medicanes show different underlying development mechanisms. A commonly agreed definition is critical and necessary to assess their climatology in past and future climates, as well as to consistently identify such systems in weather forecasts. The scientific community working on Mediterranean cyclones hereby proposes a definition, which is based solely on Earth observations: \u201cA medicane is a mesoscale cyclone that develops over the Mediterranean Sea and displays tropical-like cyclone characteristics: a warm core extending into the upper troposphere, an eye-like feature in its center with spiral cloud bands around, an almost windless center surrounded by nearly-symmetric sea surface wind circulation with maximum wind speed within a few tens of km from the center.\u201d. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Nearly two decades have passed since the term \u201cmedicane,\u201d short for \u201cMediterranean hurricane,\u201d has become commonly accepted to represent Mediterranean vortices with satellite-observed characteristics typical of tropical cyclones. The absence of an official or commonly accepted definition has created some confusion within the scientific and operational community. To overcome this ambiguity, here, we propose a phenomenological definition that can serve as a reference for future scientific research and operational applications, to be applied to any cyclonic system in the Mediterranean that bears structural similarities to tropical cyclones. This simple definition will assure consistency and, at the same time, can be used with the outputs from numerical models, working as a reference for future scientific research or operational applications.

This article describes the development and structure of the weather systems that traverse the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres. First, a review of how rotation and thermal gradients set the background state for weather system development is described. Second, a description of mid-latitude storm (extratropical cyclone) structure, development and their associated features (wind flows and fronts) are presented. Finally, the development and lifecycle of blocking anticyclones is discussed along with a discussion of how their impacts vary depending on the season in which they develop.

The model representation of dry intrusions (DIs) and the marine boundary layer (MBL) is analyzed in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). For this purpose, a DI classification at the Azores is combined with observation, short-term background forecast and analysis data from the IFS data assimilation system. The background exhibits a cold bias in the descending DI, which is possibly related to a cold bias in the MBL below through vertical mixing. At the surface, simulated wind speeds are underestimated and directions are veered compared to the observations. The errors are reduced in the analysis except for near-surface wind and humidity biases. We hypothesize that these biases are connected through underestimated surface latent heat fluxes. Such persistent biases potentially influence local weather and midlatitude weather evolution as cyclones are supplied with moisture from the cold sector influenced by DIs.

Deep convection occurs periodically in the Gulf of Lion, in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, driven by the seasonal atmospheric change and Mistral winds. To determine the variability and drivers of both forcings, multiple 1 year ocean simulations were run, spanning from 1993 to 2013. Two sets of simulations were performed: a control and seasonal set, the first forced by unfiltered atmospheric forcing and the other by filtered forcing. The filtered forcing was bandpass filtered, retaining the seasonal and intraday aspects but removing the high frequency phenomena. Comparing the two sets allows for distinguishing the effects of the high frequency component of the Mistral on the ocean response. During the preconditioning phase, the seasonal forcing was found to be the main destratifying process, removing on average 46% of the stratification needed for deep convection to occur, versus the 28% removed by the Mistral. Despite this, each forcing triggered deep convection in roughly half of the deep-convection events. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were found to be the main drivers of the seasonal forcing during deep-convection years, removing 0.17 and 0.43 m
²s
⁻² of stratification, respectively. They were themselves driven by increased wind speeds, believed to be the low frequency signal of the Mistral, as more Mistral events occur during deep-convection winters (34% vs. 29% of the preconditioning period days). An evolving seasonal forcing in a changing climate may have significant effects on the future deep convection cycle of the western Mediterranean Sea.

The Indian summer monsoon affects the lives of over 1/6 of the worlds population. Precipitation extremes during summer monsoons have dire socioeconomic impacts. Yet, the mechanisms leading to these extremes are poorly understood, making their accurate forecasts and reliable future projections a longstanding challenge. Using a Lagrangian-based method, we show that precipitation extremes link to dry air intrusions from the southern midlatitudes upper troposphere, crossing the equator, and reaching the Arabian Sea. By triggering intense ocean evaporation, these dry intrusions are associated with modulated moisture transport patterns toward India and enhanced precipitation by >17% on average, often embedding local extremes. A notable example is the excessive rain that caused the devastating Kerala flood of 2018. However, depending on the wind pattern, these dry intrusions may, in some cases, decrease rainfall over land. The emerging connection of rainfall variability with midlatitude weather systems opens opportunities for improving the forecast of precipitation extremes and understanding their future projections.

Seven years of data collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site are analyzed to understand the controls of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) concentrations in the region. Day-night differences in the aerosol data as segregated by wind direction demonstrate the aerosol observations to be impacted by local emissions when the wind direction (wdir) is between 90° and 310° (measured clockwise from the North where air is coming from). Data collected during marine conditions (wdir 310°) show the CCN concentrations to be higher in the summer months as compared to the winter months. CCN budget analysis revealed advection and precipitation scavenging being primarily responsible for modulating the CCN concentrations at the site on monthly timescales, with rain rates driving the precipitation scavenging term. High (greater than 75th percentile) and low (lower than 25th percentile) CCN events were identified for each month to characterize the sub-monthly variability of CCN concentrations. Low CCN events had thicker clouds, stronger rain rates, and lower reanalysis reported free-tropospheric aerosol pseudo number concentration at the ENA site as compared to the high CCN events. Analysis of satellite data of air-parcels 48 hr prior to their arrival at the ENA site demonstrated the air parcels during low CCN events to encounter higher cloudiness, stronger rain rates, and higher cloud top heights as compared to the high CCN events. The results presented herein provide key constraints for model evaluation studies and climatological studies conducted at the ENA site.

Understanding the underlying processes causing large-scale dust storms and their transport in North Africa is essential for their accurate prediction. Different atmospheric mechanisms have been identified to govern the emission of dust and its transport, ranging in scale and season, from Rossby wave breaking to local, low-level cold and dry jets. Connecting these features in a Lagrangian sense is a coherent airflow from the midlatitude upper troposphere to the surface where dust concentrations peak. Such dry intrusions (DIs) are linked to reduced static stability and strong, dry winds and indeed have been recently shown to play a central role in four of the largest dust storm in the region. Yet, the climatological link between DIs and dust storms over a long time period has not been studied yet. The aim of this paper is to identify objectively dust events that co-occur with DIs, and understand their spatio-temporal characteristics and underlying dynamical drivers. Combining Lagrangian-based DI identification in ERA-Interim and dust optical depth data in CAMS reanalyses, 325 events during 20032018 are identified. The events occur mostly in late winter and spring, when they are also larger in size and last longer, compared to summer events. When occurring with DIs, dust optical depth is generally higher, compared to events that are not accompanied by DIs. We focus on March events, and find coherent large-scale precursors and atmospheric conditions of dust-DI events: a northward jet shift over the North Atlantic with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking occurs on average 45\u202fdays prior to the events. The lower troposphere responds with dry and cold conditions in northwest Africa, coinciding with the outflow of the DI airstream that is initially guided by the upper trough. Finally, elevated near-surface dust concentrations prevail on the leading edge of the DI in tropical west Africa, and in northeast Africa, where dust is exported to the Mediterranean in association with a Mediterranean cyclone.

There is limited understanding of temperature and atmospheric circulation changes that accompany an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown beyond the North Atlantic realm. A Peqiin Cave (Israel) speleothem dated to the last interglacial period (LIG), 129116 thousand years ago (ka), together with a large modern rainfall monitoring dataset, serve as the base for investigating past AMOC slowdown effects on the Eastern Mediterranean. Here, we reconstruct LIG temperatures and rainfall source using organic proxies (TEX86) and fluid inclusion water d-excess. The TEX86 data show a stepwise cooling from 19.8±0.2° (ca. 128126 ka) to 16.5±0.6°C (ca. 124123 ka), while d-excess values decrease abruptly (ca. 126 ka). The d-excess shift suggests that rainfall was derived from more zonal Mediterranean air flow during the weakened AMOC interval. Decreasing rainfall d-excess trends over the last 25 years raise the question whether similar atmospheric circulation changes are also occurring today.

Large dust storms in the Saharan desert and the subsequent transport of airborne dust over large distances are a major meteorological hazard. Several mechanisms associated to dust emission, occurring on a range of scales, have been previously documented, notably involving Rossby wave breaking and a low-level jet. However, the mechanistic link between the different features and actual dust concentrations has not been coherently established. Here, using a Lagrangian approach, and the conceptual view of extratropical cyclone airstreams, the role of the dry intrusion airstream for translating the influence of the upper-tropospheric Rossby wave perturbation to near-surface flow conductive for the highest dust concentrations is examined. To this end, four large-scale dust storms that were accompanied by dry intrusions in west Africa are studied. Data from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (validated against AERONET station data) are combined with atmospheric data from reanalysis and objectively-identified Lagrangian trajectories of dry intrusions. Common, coherent structures highlighting the role of dry intrusions link the upper-tropospheric Rossby wave breaks with the lower-tropospheric dry and cold jets. These conditions favor dust uplift and transport along an arc-shaped cold front trailing from a Mediterranean cyclone. Consequently, the southwest side of the front is characterized by the highest near-surface dust concentrations ahead of the dry intrusion outflow, where the Intertropical Discontinuity shifts equatorward by 3 to 7°. The northeast part of the front is, however, accompanied by southerly, warm conveyor belt-like flow transporting the dust northward to the Mediterranean, Middle East and/or Europe at mid and upper-tropospheric levels. While case-to-case variations exists, the central role of dry intrusions in all cases calls for systematic investigation of its occurrence as a predictive tool for large dust transport events.

Persistent dry winter events over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) disrupt the rainy (winter) season precipitation patterns and dramatically reduce water availability in the region. Here we objectively identify persistent dry, warm winter events over Israel, and apply a Lagrangian approach to three case studies, aiming to understand the relation between the synoptic setting, precursor Rossby waves, and how the dry, warm conditions emerge. Self-organizing map classification of atmospheric profile data over Israel shows that the most persistent (at least 5days) dry and warm winter events are induced by a stagnant upper tropospheric ridge over the EM, pronounced trough or cutoff low over the western/central Mediterranean and blocking over the North Atlantic. The leading mechanisms of the warm and dry conditions are: adiabatic heating during slantwise subsidence, heating by sensible heat fluxes from the surface, and advection of warm and dry continental air. The relative contributions of the mechanisms and geographical locations of the back trajectories vary greatly both within and among the events. In addition, the Atlantic blocking and EM ridge are supported by upstream diabatic heating in warm conveyor belts of North Atlantic cyclones and Mediterranean cyclones, respectively. A quantitative classification of the back trajectories above the Atlantic and the Mediterranean has shown transitions from adiabatic to diabatic contributions and vice versa along these paths. The sequential relation between Atlantic ridge (or block), trough over Europe and ridge over EM and/or west Russia places local persistent warm and dry extremes into a large-scale context and thus provides new opportunities for understanding their predictability at weather and climate scales.

Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society and ecosystems, is key to supporting future risk reduction and preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview of the state of the art, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region is situated in a transition zone between subtropical and mid-latitude climates. The large-scale atmospheric circulation and its interaction with regional synoptic systems (i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian Troughs, "Sharav"Lows) and high-pressure systems mainly govern extreme weather. Complex orographic features further play an important role in the generation of extreme weather. Most extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods and windstorms, are associated with Cyprus Lows or active Red Sea Troughs, whereas heat waves are related with either Persian Troughs and sub-tropical high-pressure systems in summer or the Sharav Low during springtime. In future decades, heat waves and droughts are projected to significantly increase in both frequency and intensity. Changes in heavy precipitation may vary in sign and magnitude depending on the scale, severity and region of interest. There are still relatively large uncertainties concerning the physical understanding and the projected changes of cold spells, windstorms and compound extremes, as these types of events received comparatively little attention in the literature. We further identify knowledge gaps that relate to the societal impacts of extreme weather. These gaps mainly relate to the effects extreme weather may have on mortality, morbidity and infrastructure in the eastern Mediterranean. Research is currently limited in this context, and we recommend strengthening the database of analyzed case studies. We trust that this can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary and international regional collaboration (in spite of political unrest).

Following the 2020 wildfires in Australia, an extremely large amount of smoke entered the stratosphere and was dispersed throughout the southern hemisphere stratosphere. However, the pathway and entry point of the smoke into the stratosphere and the underlying mechanism remained unclear. Here, Lagrangian trajectory analysis is used to examine the flow downstream of the fires in the south Pacific, where the smoke was detected. We find that tropical cyclone Sarai merged with an extratropical cyclone to form a troposphere-wide cyclonic system, with a deep potential vorticity cutoff above it. The smoke first traveled in the isentropic layer between 340 and 350 °K. Having reached the cyclone, the smoke circulated and entered the stratosphere through a dip in the tropopause height within the cutoff. The cyclone described in this case study is not uncommon in these regions, possibly underlining the importance of this mechanism for troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange.

The boundary layer (BL) profile over the coastal plain of Israel, Eastern Mediterranean (EM), varies considerably during winter. Although in the context of air pollution, the characteristics of the BL height (BLH) was intensively investigated, a quantitative classification of the BL profile regimes has not been performed. Here, we seek to reveal the dominant, recurring regimes of the BL profiles, their quantitative characteristics and links to regional synoptic-scale patterns. An objective unsupervised classification of winter BL radiosonde profiles is performed for the first time by multi-parameter self-organizing map (SOM) analysis. The analysis uses high-resolution, 12:00-UTC data of wind, temperature, humidity and pressure measurements during December to February 2007-2018, and yields 30 distinct profile regimes. Composite analysis using ERA5 reanalysis suggests strong association between the profile regimes and synoptic weather systems and highlights four groups: (a) Deep winter cyclones with strong westerly wind and precipitation; (b) Strong surface anticyclones and Red Sea troughs (RST) with a mid-tropospheric ridge, moderate dry easterly wind and extreme temperatures. (c) Moderate pressure gradients under shallow cyclones, anticyclone to the west and RST to the east of Israel. (d) Active RSTs, accompanied by upper-tropospheric trough/cutoff low and heavy precipitation. For the first time, general objective classification observes the active RST without requiring specific criteria. Consistent with previous knowledge, the new classification exhibits distinct categories of thermal stability, BLH and turbulence. Importantly, we show that the automatic objective classification of profile data from a single station can be a sensitive discriminator of winter synoptic regimes in the EM, and therefore explains the variability of the BL profile. It facilitates the study of the interaction between the BL and the free troposphere and may improve the prediction of air pollution or future BL profile regimes based on long time series from historical data or climate models.

The paleo-synoptic conditions that prevailed during the past ∼80 kyr in northeastern China are inferred from the elemental and SrNd isotopic compositions of Lake Sihailongwan Maar sediments. The detrital fraction in the lake sediments is dominated by aeolian input of felsic-rock origin, with little contribution of local volcanic material. Based on the isotopic SrNd composition of the lake core-sediments, we postulate that the deserts of northern China are the main source of allochthonous particles to the lake throughout the past ∼80 kyr. Northwesterly winds associated with the East Asian winter monsoon and high latitude westerlies are the main carriers of dust from these deserts to the lake. The deserts of central China are an additional minor dust source. The episodic dust input from these deserts results from anomalous dry southwesterly winds. These could be related to either El Niño conditions, or to delays in the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon rains.

Cold fronts are a primary feature of the day-to-day variability of weather in the midlatitudes, and feature in conceptual extratropical cyclone models alongside the dry intrusion airstream. Here the climatological frequency and spatial distribution of the co-occurrence of these two features are quantified, and the differences in cold front characteristics (intensity, size, and precipitation) when a dry intrusion is present or not are calculated. Fronts are objectively identified in the ECMWF ERA-Interim dataset for the winter seasons in each hemisphere and split into three sub-types: central fronts (within a cyclone area); trailing fronts (outwith the cyclone area but connected to a central front); and isolated fronts (not connected to a cyclone). These are then associated with dry intrusions identified using Lagrangian trajectory analysis. Trailing fronts are most likely to be associated with a DI in both hemispheres, and this occurs more frequently in the western parts of the major storm track regions. Isolated fronts are linked to DIs more frequently on the eastern ends of the storm tracks, and in the subtropics. All front types, when co-occurring with a DI, are stronger in terms of their temperature gradient, are much larger in area, and typically have higher average precipitation. Therefore, climatologically the link with DIs increases the impact of cold fronts. There are some differences in the statistics of the precipitation for trailing and isolated fronts that are further investigated in Part II of this study from the front-centred perspective.

A new method for identifying high impact large-scale wind and precipitation events in the extended Mediterranean region is outlined and applied to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for the years 1979-2012. The method highlights large-scale 10 m gust and precipitation events that classify as extreme if integrated over a spatial scale of 1000 km and a temporal scale of 3 days. The method detects successfully high impact events, and reveals clear seasonal differences among the subregions of the Mediterranean. Western Mediterranean precipitation extremes are more intense, and occur mainly in autumn, while eastern Mediterranean events occur in winter. Composite dynamical analyses of large-scale wind and precipitation extremes, and a combination of them, highlight coherent dynamical flow structures associated with the extremes in the different subregions of the Mediterranean. Precipitation events are preceded by an upper-level trough and strong jet on its western flank, followed by cyclogenesis (mainly in the western Mediterranean), and/or a merging of the polar with the subtropical jet over northeastern Africa (in the eastern Mediterranean). Strong surface wind extremes develop around cyclones that intensify south of a deep parent cyclone near the exit of a strong anticyclonically curved jet, propagate eastwards and create a cold and dry northerly wind anomaly at the surface. Furthermore, combined large-scale wind and precipitation extremes often occur simultaneously near cyclones, either North Atlantic cyclones, which project the wind and precipitation into the western Mediterranean, or Mediterranean cyclones. The latter produce wind extremes over a localized area, which often overlaps entirely with the region that receives extreme precipitation.

Tropical plumes (TPs) reflect tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the transport of moisture from the Tropics to extratropical latitudes. They are observed in satellite images as continuous narrow cloud bands ahead of upper-level subtropical troughs at times when the subtropical jet is highly perturbed. Rainstorms usually develop in the exit regions of TPs, so their presence over northern Africa has an impact on the precipitation regime in the southeastern Mediterranean. Based on satellite images and rainfall measurements from Israel, 10 TPs over eastern North Africa between 1988 and 2005 in which considerable rain was recorded were selected. Using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the structure and evolution of these TPs were characterized and their regional canonical features were identified. A typical TP that occurred in March 1991 is described in detail. The main canonical characteristics are as follows: the TP development is preceded by an incubation period, expressed either as a stationary upper-level trough, persisting 2-6 days, or as two consecutive TP pulses; the preferred location for TP origin is 5°-15°N, 5°W-15°E; the TP is separated from the underlying dry Saharan PBL; the subtropical trough undergoes a phase locking with the lower tropical trough; the cloudiness in the TP-induced rainstorm is mostly stratified with continuous moderate rain, originating from midlevel moisture; and the TP tends to be followed by a midlatitude cyclogenesis over the eastern Mediterranean. This analysis proposes several explanations for the efficiency of the TPs in transporting moisture over a 2000-km distance.