November 08, 1994 - November 08, 2027

  • Date:03SundayNovember 2024

    Forensic seismic evidence for precursory mobilization in Gaza leading to the October 7 terrorist attack

    More information
    Time
    11:00
    Location
    Sussman Family Building for Environmental Sciences
    M. Magaritz Seminar Room
    Lecturer
    Asaf Inbal
    Tel Aviv University
    Organizer
    Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
    Contact
    AbstractShow full text abstract about Seismic waves excited by human activity frequently obscure s...»
    Seismic waves excited by human activity frequently obscure signals
    due to tectonic processes and are discarded as a nuisance. Seismic
    noise-field analysis is, however, a powerful tool for characterizing
    anthropogenic activities. In this talk, I will briefly review the
    seismological fingerprints of anthropogenic noise sources and then
    present a scheme devised to identify precursory activity leading to the
    October 7 terrorist attack. The precursory activity in Gaza included
    massive mobilization, documented by multiple media outlets. Favorable
    conditions arose due to a temporary lack of anthropogenic activity in
    Israel, allowing remote seismic stations to record signals due to Gaza
    vehicle traffic in the early hours of Oct. 7. Seismogram analysis reveals
    a widespread signal that abruptly emerged above the nighttime noise
    levels about 20 minutes before the attack began. Statistical analysis
    suggests the signal is highly anomalous; tests for significance indicate
    that pre-attack inter-station correlations would emerge by chance only
    once every 18,000 years. Tripartite array analysis was used to detect
    surface waves, locate their sources, and demarcate the extent of preattack
    activity within the Gaza Strip. The signal’s amplitude, frequency,
    and spatiotemporal distribution appear to be aligned with vehicular
    traffic emanating from the south-central region of the Gaza Strip and
    extending towards its peripheries in the half-hour window preceding the
    invasion. This provides valuable tactical information and suggests
    embedding seismic noise-field analysis into decision-making protocols
    could enhance preparedness for terrorist attacks.
    Lecture